Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 19.413732 21.108510 22.980200 25.220023 27.854080 30.887979 34.699172
2024-10-13 16.873295 19.102164 21.746747 25.185686 29.652111 35.434924 43.827243
2024-10-20 14.934590 17.382347 20.437258 24.663689 30.604885 39.115698 53.306847
2024-10-27 14.081868 16.818590 20.402732 25.677936 33.742477 46.717023 72.597142
2024-11-03 13.025134 15.828947 19.624170 25.462055 34.968125 51.772465 91.298450
2024-11-10 12.257777 15.123795 19.118239 25.515345 36.579137 58.114421 119.470528
2024-11-17 11.655793 14.574267 18.749280 25.687798 38.401333 65.720660 163.593792
2024-11-24 11.132840 14.080813 18.394648 25.804502 40.128807 74.092551 233.997455
2024-12-01 10.597801 13.521459 17.874806 25.548832 41.043809 81.056620 333.030043
2024-12-08 10.187098 13.111236 17.542353 25.564335 42.527629 90.774878 556.494351
2024-12-15 9.772033 12.663607 17.106776 25.325412 43.385359 99.350126 1025.561526
2024-12-22 9.397054 12.251866 16.693281 25.070043 44.146220 108.478692 2692.410253
2024-12-29 9.053606 11.873959 16.315277 24.854984 45.021109 119.554918 271151.120892
2025-01-05 8.751679 11.543706 15.992593 24.711230 46.070831 133.260926 NaN
2025-01-12 8.406456 11.127470 15.495016 24.156965 45.883112 140.765726 NaN
2025-01-19 8.329553 11.130348 15.715602 25.112050 50.306390 186.238482 NaN
2025-01-26 8.079528 10.841679 15.403809 24.893338 51.150404 209.624365 NaN
2025-02-02 7.886075 10.634879 15.223002 24.939678 52.890932 249.370839 NaN
2025-02-09 7.722076 10.467766 15.101423 25.103308 55.121663 309.831096 NaN
2025-02-16 7.561683 10.298671 14.964327 25.214500 57.247589 391.635811 NaN
2025-02-23 7.365837 10.062123 14.688139 24.968093 57.968483 461.102150 NaN
2025-03-02 7.214170 9.893180 14.528082 24.982785 59.769756 601.560129 NaN
2025-03-09 7.041989 9.682894 14.278350 24.752823 60.509884 743.642141 NaN